Published in Sweden - Financial analysis - 30 Sep 2026 02:14 - 1
Thirty-three days ago, the market had become more open.
More Q6 army weapons were publicly available. Q4 army supply had expanded. The previous article showed how much of the world's stock holders were putting up for sale.
Now we have a war going, and the next market picture looks very different.
Army weapons are thinner. Several material prices have risen sharply. Food has become more visible, but also more expensive.
The interesting part is how quickly that visible supply can change.
========================================
THE SHORT VERSION
========================================
Five movements stand out:
- Army weapons, all qualities: 2.85 million -> 1.10 million listed. Down 61.4%.
- Q6 army weapons: 793,654 -> 186,895. Down 76.5%, while the lower price zone rose 49.2%.
- Q5 navy weapons: 141,141 -> 24,887. Down 82.4%, with very little supply near the cheapest offer.
- Q5 food: 1.32 million -> 2.30 million. Up 74.2%, while the lower price zone rose 135.9%.
- Food material: listed supply fell 48.0%, while its lower price zone became four times higher.
All prices below are gold per 1,000 units.
The lower price zone looks beyond the first cheap offer. Imagine lining up 100 weapons from cheapest to most expensive: we use the asking price of weapon number 25. This gives us the same reference point for each snapshot. It does not mean every buyer can fill a large order there.
========================================
WHERE THE WEAPONS WENT QUIET
========================================
Product Day 884 Day 917 Supply change
Army Q3 358,102 172,729 -51.8%
Army Q4 940,297 304,325 -67.6%
Army Q5 393,187 211,899 -46.1%
Army Q6 793,654 186,895 -76.5%
Navy Q5 141,141 24,887 -82.4%
Navy Q6 489,798 345,061 -29.6%
Q4 and Q6 army weapons were two of the liquidity improvements in the previous article.
Both have now given up much of that visible supply.
Across all army qualities, the market has 1,751,137 fewer weapons listed than in the saved Day 884 snapshot.
That is a large change for anyone trying to buy from the public market during a war.
It does not tell us how many weapons were fired. Purchases, withdrawals, private transfers, production and new listings all sit behind the final number.
========================================
THE LOWER PRICE ZONE: WHAT MOVED
========================================
Product Day 884 Day 917 Change
Army Q4 5.814 8.450 +45.3%
Army Q5 6.426 12.500 +94.5%
Army Q6 10.455 15.600 +49.2%
Navy Q5 7.599 50.000 +558.0%
Navy Q6 10.965 10.150 -7.4%
Food Q5 1.470 3.468 +135.9%
Food Material 0.051 0.204 +300.0%
Weapon Material 0.051 0.250 +390.2%
House Material 0.255 0.357 +40.0%
Ship Material 0.235 0.306 +30.2%
There is pressure, but it is uneven.
Q6 navy still has a lower price zone than on Day 884, despite losing almost 30% of its listed supply.
Q5 navy is the fragile one. Its big percentage price increase comes from a very thin market, so it needs more explanation than a headline number.
========================================
WHAT VOLATILITY LOOKS LIKE
========================================
The Q6 army history shows the movement inside the period.
These are selected saved observations, with UTC times. They are not daily closing prices.
Day / time Listed Q6 army lower price zone
910 / 18:32 366,996 10.15
911 / 17:17 196,807 15.30
912 / 04:33 302,017 12.75
912 / 19:34 248,855 14.95
914 / 11:08 170,687 15.30
915 / 17:16 200,606 14.95
917 / 08:44 186,895 15.60
From the Day 910 observation to Day 911, visible supply almost halved and the lower price zone rose about 51%.
Then supply returned. Early on Day 912, listings were back above 302,000 and the lower price zone eased to 12.75.
Later that same day, supply was lower again and the lower price zone was back at 14.95.
That is the movement a buyer feels: the amount available at yesterday's price can change sharply between visits.
New listings can briefly soften the market. Purchases, withdrawals or repricing can make it expensive again. These observations capture the swings, without identifying which action caused each one.
========================================
FOOD: ARE RESERVES COMING OUT?
========================================
Food Q5 is the most interesting counter-movement.
Listed supply rose by 979,762 units.
At the same time, its lower price zone rose from 1.47 to 3.468 gold per 1,000.
More food appeared on the market at a much higher price level.
My reading is that some holders may be bringing stored food out when prices become attractive. People can keep reserves while prices are low, then offer part of those reserves when buyers are willing to pay more.
The figures fit that explanation.
They do not establish where those extra listings came from. Fresh production and changes in seller mix can also contribute. We cannot say that holders sell only when prices rise from these snapshots alone.
But the previous world-stock report gives this idea useful context.
On Day 884:
- Official Q5 food stock: 19,768,396.
- Publicly listed Q5 food in the saved snapshot: 1,319,956.
- Public market share: about 6.68%.
- About 93.32% of the reported stock was outside those public listings.
There was a much larger pool behind what buyers could see.
That is a historical comparison. We do not have a new Day 917 worldwide total, so today's 2.30 million listings cannot be turned into a current world-stock percentage.
Still, the earlier report explains why the market can refill without a sudden production miracle. Existing reserves may become visible when their holders decide the price is right.
========================================
A BIG LISTING CAN CHANGE THE PICTURE
========================================
Q6 army has 186,895 units listed.
Only 46,796 are available at converted asking prices up to 15.6 gold per 1,000.
A single 115,000-unit listing sits at 33.8 gold per 1,000. That is about 61.5% of all visible Q6 army supply.
So a buyer sees some stock around 15–15.6, followed by a much larger block at a higher price. More than half the visible supply is in that one expensive offer.
Q5 navy is more extreme:
- Total listed: 24,887.
- Supply without a usable gold conversion: 8,080.
- Supply within twice the cheapest converted price: only 167.
- One 10,100-unit listing asks 45,000 gold per 1,000.
That last offer makes the market look more stocked than it is for someone shopping near the cheaper prices. An extreme asking price gives us no evidence that buyers will pay it.
This is why a market can look stocked while offering very little useful depth to an ordinary buyer.
========================================
Q6 ARMY: THE LEVELS TO WATCH
========================================
We can read these listings a little like a trading chart, as long as we remember that offers can be withdrawn and we do not see completed trades.
12.75 gold: the refill level.
On Day 912, visible supply recovered above 302,000 and the lower price zone eased to 12.75. This is a possible support area to watch if prices fall again. One brief return does not establish a reliable floor; we would need to see buyers repeatedly absorb supply there.
15–16 gold: the recent price zone.
The lower price zone repeatedly returned to this area. At the latest snapshot, 46,796 Q6 army weapons were listed at converted prices up to 15.6. Watch how quickly that stock is replaced when it disappears. Regular refills could keep cheaper supply available; a failure to refill would leave buyers facing higher offers.
33.8 gold: the sell wall.
One seller has 115,000 weapons waiting here. That is a potential resistance level: a large amount offered for sale that buyers would need to absorb to move through it, assuming the offer remains. It is well above the cheaper listings, so it is a level on the map rather than a prediction of where prices go next.
These levels can change with one large holder's decision. More reserves coming onto the market could rebuild the cheaper zones before buyers ever reach that wall.
========================================
MATERIALS: THREE DOWN, ONE UP
========================================
Material Day 884 Day 917 Supply change
Food 2,558,517 1,330,920 -48.0%
Weapon 2,075,251 1,603,475 -22.7%
House 678,967 394,962 -41.8%
Ship 954,198 1,616,269 +69.4%
Food and weapon materials show the strongest lower price zone increases.
Ship material moved the other way in quantity, with more stock publicly offered.
Even that +69.4% deserves context: another saved snapshot later on Day 884 already had 1,223,198 ship materials listed. Against that observation, today's increase is 32.1%.
The direction is the same. The size changes considerably depending on the hour.
That is another reason to keep collecting snapshots.
========================================
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
========================================
The next useful question is how long the market can hold these prices.
Will more Q5 food come out of storage as sellers see higher prices?
Will Q6 army refill around 15–16 gold per 1,000, or will buyers increasingly face the larger block at 33.8?
Will food and weapon material supply recover as producers respond?
The current picture shows fewer publicly listed weapons and higher asking prices in several important categories. It also shows that supply can return quickly.
During this war, the willingness of holders to sell may matter alongside how much the game produces and consumes.
========================================
DATA NOTES
========================================
- Day 884 baseline: saved Jarvis snapshot, August 28 at 17:29:55 UTC.
- Day 917 market capture: September 30 at 08:44:19 UTC.
- Worldwide Day 884 quantities come from the previous published article.
- Current quantities cover public market listings. Private inventories and private trades are outside the feed.
- Historical prices retain their historical currency conversions; current prices use the new monetary-market snapshot. Gold-equivalent changes can reflect both listing prices and exchange rates.
- Supply without a usable currency conversion remains in quantity totals and is excluded from price calculations.
- The lower price zone is calculated from the cheapest quarter of supply with a usable gold conversion. Large offers count more than small ones. These are asking prices, not completed trades.
- The recent observations demonstrate price and supply swings; this is not a statistical volatility estimate.
- Product totals combine item counts across qualities, without converting them into damage or energy equivalents.
- This is a preview for review, not a published article.
More Q6 army weapons were publicly available. Q4 army supply had expanded. The previous article showed how much of the world's stock holders were putting up for sale.
Now we have a war going, and the next market picture looks very different.
Army weapons are thinner. Several material prices have risen sharply. Food has become more visible, but also more expensive.
The interesting part is how quickly that visible supply can change.
========================================
THE SHORT VERSION
========================================
Five movements stand out:
- Army weapons, all qualities: 2.85 million -> 1.10 million listed. Down 61.4%.
- Q6 army weapons: 793,654 -> 186,895. Down 76.5%, while the lower price zone rose 49.2%.
- Q5 navy weapons: 141,141 -> 24,887. Down 82.4%, with very little supply near the cheapest offer.
- Q5 food: 1.32 million -> 2.30 million. Up 74.2%, while the lower price zone rose 135.9%.
- Food material: listed supply fell 48.0%, while its lower price zone became four times higher.
All prices below are gold per 1,000 units.
The lower price zone looks beyond the first cheap offer. Imagine lining up 100 weapons from cheapest to most expensive: we use the asking price of weapon number 25. This gives us the same reference point for each snapshot. It does not mean every buyer can fill a large order there.
========================================
WHERE THE WEAPONS WENT QUIET
========================================
Product Day 884 Day 917 Supply change
Army Q3 358,102 172,729 -51.8%
Army Q4 940,297 304,325 -67.6%
Army Q5 393,187 211,899 -46.1%
Army Q6 793,654 186,895 -76.5%
Navy Q5 141,141 24,887 -82.4%
Navy Q6 489,798 345,061 -29.6%
Q4 and Q6 army weapons were two of the liquidity improvements in the previous article.
Both have now given up much of that visible supply.
Across all army qualities, the market has 1,751,137 fewer weapons listed than in the saved Day 884 snapshot.
That is a large change for anyone trying to buy from the public market during a war.
It does not tell us how many weapons were fired. Purchases, withdrawals, private transfers, production and new listings all sit behind the final number.
========================================
THE LOWER PRICE ZONE: WHAT MOVED
========================================
Product Day 884 Day 917 Change
Army Q4 5.814 8.450 +45.3%
Army Q5 6.426 12.500 +94.5%
Army Q6 10.455 15.600 +49.2%
Navy Q5 7.599 50.000 +558.0%
Navy Q6 10.965 10.150 -7.4%
Food Q5 1.470 3.468 +135.9%
Food Material 0.051 0.204 +300.0%
Weapon Material 0.051 0.250 +390.2%
House Material 0.255 0.357 +40.0%
Ship Material 0.235 0.306 +30.2%
There is pressure, but it is uneven.
Q6 navy still has a lower price zone than on Day 884, despite losing almost 30% of its listed supply.
Q5 navy is the fragile one. Its big percentage price increase comes from a very thin market, so it needs more explanation than a headline number.
========================================
WHAT VOLATILITY LOOKS LIKE
========================================
The Q6 army history shows the movement inside the period.
These are selected saved observations, with UTC times. They are not daily closing prices.
Day / time Listed Q6 army lower price zone
910 / 18:32 366,996 10.15
911 / 17:17 196,807 15.30
912 / 04:33 302,017 12.75
912 / 19:34 248,855 14.95
914 / 11:08 170,687 15.30
915 / 17:16 200,606 14.95
917 / 08:44 186,895 15.60
From the Day 910 observation to Day 911, visible supply almost halved and the lower price zone rose about 51%.
Then supply returned. Early on Day 912, listings were back above 302,000 and the lower price zone eased to 12.75.
Later that same day, supply was lower again and the lower price zone was back at 14.95.
That is the movement a buyer feels: the amount available at yesterday's price can change sharply between visits.
New listings can briefly soften the market. Purchases, withdrawals or repricing can make it expensive again. These observations capture the swings, without identifying which action caused each one.
========================================
FOOD: ARE RESERVES COMING OUT?
========================================
Food Q5 is the most interesting counter-movement.
Listed supply rose by 979,762 units.
At the same time, its lower price zone rose from 1.47 to 3.468 gold per 1,000.
More food appeared on the market at a much higher price level.
My reading is that some holders may be bringing stored food out when prices become attractive. People can keep reserves while prices are low, then offer part of those reserves when buyers are willing to pay more.
The figures fit that explanation.
They do not establish where those extra listings came from. Fresh production and changes in seller mix can also contribute. We cannot say that holders sell only when prices rise from these snapshots alone.
But the previous world-stock report gives this idea useful context.
On Day 884:
- Official Q5 food stock: 19,768,396.
- Publicly listed Q5 food in the saved snapshot: 1,319,956.
- Public market share: about 6.68%.
- About 93.32% of the reported stock was outside those public listings.
There was a much larger pool behind what buyers could see.
That is a historical comparison. We do not have a new Day 917 worldwide total, so today's 2.30 million listings cannot be turned into a current world-stock percentage.
Still, the earlier report explains why the market can refill without a sudden production miracle. Existing reserves may become visible when their holders decide the price is right.
========================================
A BIG LISTING CAN CHANGE THE PICTURE
========================================
Q6 army has 186,895 units listed.
Only 46,796 are available at converted asking prices up to 15.6 gold per 1,000.
A single 115,000-unit listing sits at 33.8 gold per 1,000. That is about 61.5% of all visible Q6 army supply.
So a buyer sees some stock around 15–15.6, followed by a much larger block at a higher price. More than half the visible supply is in that one expensive offer.
Q5 navy is more extreme:
- Total listed: 24,887.
- Supply without a usable gold conversion: 8,080.
- Supply within twice the cheapest converted price: only 167.
- One 10,100-unit listing asks 45,000 gold per 1,000.
That last offer makes the market look more stocked than it is for someone shopping near the cheaper prices. An extreme asking price gives us no evidence that buyers will pay it.
This is why a market can look stocked while offering very little useful depth to an ordinary buyer.
========================================
Q6 ARMY: THE LEVELS TO WATCH
========================================
We can read these listings a little like a trading chart, as long as we remember that offers can be withdrawn and we do not see completed trades.
12.75 gold: the refill level.
On Day 912, visible supply recovered above 302,000 and the lower price zone eased to 12.75. This is a possible support area to watch if prices fall again. One brief return does not establish a reliable floor; we would need to see buyers repeatedly absorb supply there.
15–16 gold: the recent price zone.
The lower price zone repeatedly returned to this area. At the latest snapshot, 46,796 Q6 army weapons were listed at converted prices up to 15.6. Watch how quickly that stock is replaced when it disappears. Regular refills could keep cheaper supply available; a failure to refill would leave buyers facing higher offers.
33.8 gold: the sell wall.
One seller has 115,000 weapons waiting here. That is a potential resistance level: a large amount offered for sale that buyers would need to absorb to move through it, assuming the offer remains. It is well above the cheaper listings, so it is a level on the map rather than a prediction of where prices go next.
These levels can change with one large holder's decision. More reserves coming onto the market could rebuild the cheaper zones before buyers ever reach that wall.
========================================
MATERIALS: THREE DOWN, ONE UP
========================================
Material Day 884 Day 917 Supply change
Food 2,558,517 1,330,920 -48.0%
Weapon 2,075,251 1,603,475 -22.7%
House 678,967 394,962 -41.8%
Ship 954,198 1,616,269 +69.4%
Food and weapon materials show the strongest lower price zone increases.
Ship material moved the other way in quantity, with more stock publicly offered.
Even that +69.4% deserves context: another saved snapshot later on Day 884 already had 1,223,198 ship materials listed. Against that observation, today's increase is 32.1%.
The direction is the same. The size changes considerably depending on the hour.
That is another reason to keep collecting snapshots.
========================================
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
========================================
The next useful question is how long the market can hold these prices.
Will more Q5 food come out of storage as sellers see higher prices?
Will Q6 army refill around 15–16 gold per 1,000, or will buyers increasingly face the larger block at 33.8?
Will food and weapon material supply recover as producers respond?
The current picture shows fewer publicly listed weapons and higher asking prices in several important categories. It also shows that supply can return quickly.
During this war, the willingness of holders to sell may matter alongside how much the game produces and consumes.
========================================
DATA NOTES
========================================
- Day 884 baseline: saved Jarvis snapshot, August 28 at 17:29:55 UTC.
- Day 917 market capture: September 30 at 08:44:19 UTC.
- Worldwide Day 884 quantities come from the previous published article.
- Current quantities cover public market listings. Private inventories and private trades are outside the feed.
- Historical prices retain their historical currency conversions; current prices use the new monetary-market snapshot. Gold-equivalent changes can reflect both listing prices and exchange rates.
- Supply without a usable currency conversion remains in quantity totals and is excluded from price calculations.
- The lower price zone is calculated from the cheapest quarter of supply with a usable gold conversion. Large offers count more than small ones. These are asking prices, not completed trades.
- The recent observations demonstrate price and supply swings; this is not a statistical volatility estimate.
- Product totals combine item counts across qualities, without converting them into damage or energy equivalents.
- This is a preview for review, not a published article.
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KosingasKockaSiComments (1)
So, the new admin event has awakened the market and triggered the consumption of stockpiles. Players are more active?